Economic Indicators (Source: Scotiabank)
Canadian GDP Won’t Faze the BoC; PPI Rudely Welcomes Warsh
Jan 30, 2026
Canada’s economy limped into year-end. Reading why it did so is a convoluted mess of macro drivers, weather, and strikes. It’s unclear if the numbers would mildly surprise the BoC which has strongly signalled it’s looking through what was and toward what may be on the bias that expects something better in 2026. Time and data will test this, but today’s batch had little to offer to the narrative.
GDP came in flat in November (actually -0.02% m/m) against Statcan’s preliminary guidance that was offered a month ago that indicated mild growth of 0.1% which consensus had gone with. That’s a mild miss.
December GDP is guided to have increased by 0.1% m/m SA sans details other than verbal guidance that “Increases in manufacturing and wholesale trade were partially offset by decreases in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.”
What this gives us is Q4 tracking GDP growth of -0.5% q/q SAAR using the production-side GDP accounts (chart 1).
Chart 2 breaks down which sectors drove November’s flat GDP reading.
Is that a surprise to the BoC? Maybe, maybe not. They forecast 0% Q4 GDP growth, but their forecast is based upon a different ....     More >>

Featured Insights (Source: RBC Financial Group)
Canada-China truce to bring relief for agricultural exports with caveats
Feb 2, 2026
Canada and China’s recent de-escalation of trade tensions bodes well for some exporters in the Prairies and coastal regions, who have faced export losses stemming from reduced Chinese market access.
China will remove 25% tariffs on Canadian seafood, peas, and canola meal, and sharply reduce tariffs on canola seed from 75.8% to 15% as March 1, 2026.
In exchange, Canada will lower tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles from 100% to 6.1%, allowing imports of up to 49,000 EVs this year. That means Chinese EVs would account for less than 3% of vehicle registrations in Canada the year ending Q3 2025.
The move will provide near-term relief for hard-hit sectors in agriculture, though longer-term uncertainties persist around both the durability of the truce and the competitive implications of Canada’s auto sector.
Chinese tariffs hit canola seed exports—but trade was already diversifying
Canada’s canola exports declined roughly 13% from January to October 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. Farm cash receipts fell 9% over the first three quarters of last year despite record ....     More >>

TD - The Weekly Bottom Line - Jan 30, 2026
Canadian Highlights
- Despite a busy week of Canadian economic updates, not much has changed for the economic outlook.
- Declines in non-precious metal exports to the U.S. are only being partly offset by gains elsewhere. This aligns with recent GDP and trade data pointing to effectively flat fourth quarter output.
- An increase in the GST/HST tax credit will provide modest relief to lower income households but is expected to have a limited macroeconomic impact.
U.S. Highlights
- President Trump has nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair.
- The Federal Reserve elected to hold rates steady at the target range of 3.50-3.75%.
- The White House and Senate have reached a deal that would avert another government shutdown. The appropriations bill still needs to be confirmed by the House of Representatives on Monday.