Economic Indicators (Source: Scotiabank)
The BoC’s October Decision Might Still Be ‘Live’ Despite A Quirky Jobs Report
Oct 10, 2025
There are few—but meaningful—holes to poke in a very strong Canadian employment report that adds to evidence in favour of a hold by the Bank of Canada on October 29th.
That’s more probable now, but not assured. We still need to see CPI on October 21st and the BoC’s quarterly surveys the day before, but at this point the odds of skipping the meeting have gone up. The economy is still weak and building spare capacity which could motivate the BoC to opt in favour of additional insurance. The BoC looks at job market trends that are still weak with employment down 46k in Q3 and there is a strong reason to be careful interpreting this round of jobs numbers.
DETAILS
Chart 1 provides some summary metrics. Total employment was up by +60.4k. Almost all of that was in payrolls (+53k) with public sector payrolls up by 31k and private sector payrolls up by 22k but self-employed was also a little higher at +8k.
Chart 2 shows the breakdown of job growth by sector. Somehow manufacturers added 28k jobs. The rest was mostly in health care and social assistance plus 'other' services ex-public admin. There was decent ....     More >>

Featured Insights (Source: RBC Financial Group)
Canada Labour Market
Oct 10, 2025
Canadian labour markets showed signs of stabilization in September
The Bottom Line:
Canada’s labour markets showed signs of stabilization in September, with a jump in employment (particularly in full-time jobs) although with some mixed details under the surface.
The Canadian employment counts are notoriously volatile, but the September job gain is a welcome reprieve after outsized declines over July and August were worrying enough to push the BoC to cut interest rates in September — year-to-date (since December), employment is up 98k, and now led by a 105k rise in full-time jobs (up to August, job gains year-to-date had been concentrated in part-time positions).
Labour markets are still softer than they were a year ago. The unemployment rate held steady at 7.1% in September but is still up half a percent from a year ago. International trade data softened in August, and U.S. tariffs remain a significant threat to the economic outlook. ....     More >>

TD - The Weekly Bottom Line - Oct 10, 2025
Canadian Highlights
- Canadian and U.S. policymakers have yet to hammer out a trade deal, but negotiations are still ongoing.
- Trade-related headwinds dampened Canadian trade in August, with tariff-exposed sectors continuing to feel the pinch.
- Canada’s labour market recovered some of the jobs lost in the previous two months, while ongoing labour force growth kept the unemployment rate steady.
U.S. Highlights
- The government shutdown continues through its second week, with no clear end in sight, while trade tensions between the U.S. and China have suddenly heated up.
- Absent official data, the market is turning to imperfect private-sector alternatives, which suggest the labor market continued to cool in September.
- We don’t see any developments this week that are likely to cause a big shift in the perception of the economy or the outlook, and so we are still penciling in two more quarter-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by year-end.