Economic Indicators (Source: Scotiabank)
Rumours of the Deaths of the Canadian Consumer and Inflation Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
Mar 20, 2026
The Canadian consumer is charging back in Q1 as producer prices point to upside risk facing CPI inflation. Neither the Canadian consumer nor inflation risk is dead in Canada before or after the oil shock.
Retail sales volumes are tracking just shy of a 7% q/q jump in Q1 over Q4 at a seasonally adjusted and annualized pace. It could be the strongest quarter since 2024H2.
This matters because of the strong connection between retail sales volumes and consumer spending on goods within GDP accounts (chart 1). Q1 is looking rather explosive. That could be part of the narrative behind stronger final domestic demand than GDP growth once again.
This Q1 tracking of retail volumes is based on what we know from Q4, plus a 1% m/m SA jump in sales volumes during January and a significant part of the preliminary 0.9% m/m SA guidance for February retail sales values showing up as higher volumes. March is assumed flat in the calculations solely to place emphasis upon the known factors thus far. There ....     More >>

Featured Insights (Source: RBC Financial Group)
Crude calculations: Assessing Canada’s vulnerability to oil prices
Mar 10, 2026
A surge in oil prices driven by conflicts in the Middle East raises questions about what these developments mean for Canada’s oil-exporting economy. We examined this following the 2025 oil price spike, and are refreshing our analysis in light of recent events.
Ultimately, the economic impact of oil price changes depends crucially on what’s driving them. As in June 2025, price volatility driven by geopolitical events are unlikely to be viewed as structural enough to reverse the decade-long decline in Canadian oil and gas investment.
Without an investment response, the near-term impact on gross domestic product will likely be more neutral. The size and duration of the oil price surge will matter in determining a policy response from the Bank of Canada. We expect a muted response from the BoC without more clarity on future developments.
Canada and U.S. to see net-neutral GDP impact with varying regional effects
When oil prices rise, consumers face higher prices at the pump almost instantly. As more dollars are allocated toward energy purchases, the buying power for other goods and services decline – and the ....     More >>

TD - The Weekly Bottom Line - Mar 20, 2026
Canadian Highlights
- The outlook is now clouded by the Iran conflict, overshadowing signs of easing inflation.
- Retail sales showed strong momentum early in the year, but higher energy prices are set to erode real spending in the coming months.
- Core inflation was near target with excess capacity in the economy, giving the BoC some buffer as the energy shock hits.
U.S. Highlights
- Energy markets remain volatile as physical damage and data opacity deepen uncertainty around the Middle East conflict.
- The Fed held rates steady, emphasizing caution as higher oil prices complicate the inflation outlook.
- Softer housing data underscore growing sensitivity to higher yields and tighter financial conditions.