Economic Indicators (Source: Scotiabank)
The Apprenticeship of Kevin Warsh
Jul 29, 2026
The FOMC met our expectations by keeping the fed funds policy rate unchanged at 3.75% and driving a relatively less hawkish market reaction. Guidance offered nothing to reaffirm market pricing for fairly aggressive tightening into year-end which was disappointing to the hiking bias that markets had baked in before the communications.
As such, US 2-year Treasury yield rallied by about 9 bps in the aftermath and closed 4–5bps lower. The 10s yield increased 6–7bps and the 30s yield jumped by about 10bps. In my view, the FOMC did the right thing, but the curve clearly signalled more concern about the FOMC failing to deliver on all of its verbiage about achieving price stability as pushing the short-end yields lower and longer-end higher.
Advice to receive July and September OIS pricing paid off. September OIS pricing was slashed from over 25bps to about 15bps of a 25bps hike priced at present. Cumulative pricing for the remaining three meetings this year was reduced to about +33bps.
I think the main takeaway from today’s communications is that the FOMC is still some way from having answers to key ....     More >>

Featured Insights (Source: RBC Financial Group)
Navigating the CUSMA Joint Review: Where we go from here
Jul 2, 2026
CUSMA has served as a critical backstop for Canada-U.S. trade amid the U.S. administration’s aggressive tariff stance. Product-specific measures (steel, aluminum, autos, lumber, etc.) have hurt Canada’s economy, but about 90% of U.S. imports from Canada have remained duty free largely thanks to CUSMA.
The pre-scheduled joint review of the agreement has drawn substantial attention, because of its significance. However, an important distinction is that while no agreement was reached on July 1 to extend CUSMA, the deal doesn’t expire until 2036, and tariff rates don’t change as a result.
Indeed, the renewal process built into CUSMA anticipated that extending the agreement could be politically challenging. Therefore, it requires all three parties to begin negotiating a decade before its 2036 expiry—a process that formally begins now.
Non-renewal isn’t a termination
Near-term trade risks for Canada haven’t gone away. Article 34.6 of CUSMA still allows any country to leave the agreement with six months’ written notice.
But, we continue to view the outright termination of CUSMA as unlikely if economic reasoning holds. Decades of free trade ....     More >>

TD - The Weekly Bottom Line - Jul 31, 2026
Canadian Highlights
- Canadian GDP surprised to the upside in May, leaving Q2 on track for its strongest quarterly performance in two years.
- Payroll employment posted a second consecutive monthly gain in May and reinforced signals that hiring conditions may be stabilizing.
- Despite firmer growth, we expect the Bank of Canada to remain in wait-and-see mode, holding the policy rate at 2.25% until year-end.
U.S. Highlights
- Financial markets were volatile as technology stocks came under pressure amid renewed scrutiny of AI spending, while elevated oil prices added to inflation concerns.
- The Fed held rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting. Growing markets’ concerns about the Fed’s ability to lower inflation pushed 30-year Treasury yields to a 19-year high.
- Second-quarter GDP growth moderated, but a softer headline print masked stronger domestic demand as consumer spending rebounded and business investment remained strong.