Economic Indicators (Source: Scotiabank)
FOMC Recap — Markets Lost a Friend Today
Jun 17, 2026
While it will be difficult to separate intent from unintended consequences perhaps to be revisited in subsequent communications, Kevin Warsh’s grand entrance drove the bond market to rebel, pushed stocks lower and drove a stronger dollar. Gone is the steady hand on the tiller that avoids game day surprises. Either a deliberately new hawkish and more volatile era is upon us, or a hawkish bias for now is designed to establish initial credibility and buy time before five announced taskforces report back, or the Chair is learning on the job from a run of sixteen years spent critiquing the one who holds the chair. This is a seminal moment for the Federal Reserve which makes forecasting its future moves all the more challenging.
Whatever the outcome, I rather welcome his spirited research agenda that could bear welcome fruit by year-end. My bias remains that there is a high bar to trigger a rate hike even as markets moved to price one as soon as October and that the purpose of the agenda that Warsh launched is to buy time toward a fresh way of approaching matters that directly or indirectly impact core matters in the conduct and implementation of monetary policy. His aversion to pre-judging meetings and policy actions would be incongruent to not ....     More >>

Featured Insights (Source: RBC Financial Group)
Canada’s per-capita economy still recovering
Jun 8, 2026
Canada’s consecutive contractions in gross domestic product in recent quarters sparked some concerns about whether the economy had entered a recession. We don’t back that view, nor does the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council, responsible for formally dating Canadian recessions.
A core reason for looking beyond GDP growth is the sharp swings in population growth Canada has experienced. These continue to disrupt traditional interpretations of data. Notably, the past two quarters of GDP decline both coincided with population declines—the first on record since the 1950s.
While the total pie shrank, real per-person growth has continued to expand. This matters because per-capita measures better reflect how households and workers experience the economy. Between 2023 and 2024, per-person GDP declined persistently while headline GDP was overstating economic health.
Now the opposite is true: Headline GDP looks worse than reality, while Canada’s in early-stage recovery from a soft patch that began in early 2023.
To assess the current situation objectively, we examine economic data compared to previous recessions. We found that once ....     More >>

TD - The Weekly Bottom Line - Jun 12, 2026
Canadian Highlights
- The Bank of Canada held the policy rate at 2.25%. Soft growth argues against further tightening, but the risk inflation pressures become more generalized keep cuts off the table, reinforcing a prolonged hold.
- Canada’s international trade books moved further into surplus territory. Broad export gains and firmer volumes point to net trade supporting Q2 growth after dragging in Q1.
- The Canadian economy is expected to rebound in Q2, but it’s not out of the woods – lingering uncertainty continues to cap the upside.
U.S. Highlights
- The effects of the Iran war were evident in the CPI inflation report, which hit a three year high in May. Core inflation edged up to 2.9% y/y in line with consensus expectations.
- NFIB pricing indicators also moved higher in May and inflation concerns continued to rise, while hiring plans continued to soften.
- Existing home sales beat market expectations in May, but activity remains low compared to historical norms. Lacklustre markets are reflected in home price growth, which is still in the slow lane (1.3% y/y).