Economic Indicators (Source: Scotiabank)
US Core Services Inflation Lit Up in April
May 12, 2026
Core CPI inflation matched my estimate but it’s important to remove shelter this time. Upon doing so, core services inflation accelerated in ways that continue to defy linkages with wages, while the breadth of price increases continues to rise.
Markets reacted to the data and then hawkish comments by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee by pushing the US 2s yield higher and adding a slight amount to the roughly 10bps
Chart 1 shows core CPI accelerated to 4.6% m/m at a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR).
The reading was not light even after removal of the statistical quirk represented by shelter’s treatment. Shelter surged by 0.6% m/m SA with rent up 0.6% and owners’ equivalent rent up 0.5%. A good part of these effects traced themselves to the BLS merely catching up to more properly capturing shelter given April CPI was the first chance for it to address last October’s omission of shelter prices due to the government shutdown. That omission carried lasting effects upon the shelter methodology. Look through this effect as a temporary statistical quirk as shelter is likely to be softer next time. ....     More >>

Featured Insights (Source: RBC Financial Group)
The hidden resilience in Canada’s labour market
May 11, 2026
Headline labour market data in Canada looks gloomy in 2026, but beneath that lies more encouraging details: Fewer permanent layoffs and stable hidden unemployment point to easing in cyclical weakness and underlying resilience.
Sectors exposed to U.S. demand are still seeing job losses, but those losses haven’t spread to the broader economy. More recently, hiring intentions among Canadian firms have picked up, though translating those plans into actual job growth will take time.
Structurally, Canada’s aging population is tightening its grip on labour supply as immigration slows and retirements accelerate. Below, we outline the key hidden trends that leave us content with our cautiously optimistic view about Canada’s labour market recovery this year.
Tariff-driven job losses remain narrowly concentrated
U.S. tariffs have hit exposed Canadian industries hard. Employment in sectors dependent on U.S. demand1 fell 2% since February 2025—worse than the 1% decline a year earlier. This weakness, however, has not spread to other sectors, that saw 1% job growth over the same two-year period. ....     More >>

TD - The Weekly Bottom Line - May 8, 2026
Canadian Highlights
- Canada’s labour market remained soft in April, with employment down and the unemployment rate rising to 6.9%.
- Canada’s trade balance returned to surplus in March on stronger commodity exports, though net trade is still likely to subtract from Q1 GDP growth.
- A soft labour market and weak ex-energy trade should keep the Bank of Canada in a wait-and-see mode despite energy prices.
U.S. Highlights
- U.S. payroll growth was solid in April, defying market expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.
- Historically lean jobless claims reaffirmed a muted environment for layoffs, while the ISM Services Index signaled continued expansion in the services side of the economy.
- Volatility in oil prices continued this week as WTI crude oil retreated from $105 per barrel to the mid-$90s later in the week on hopes of a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations.